16 Questions that could define the United Rugby Championship - South Africa

This could be the year when all 4 SA franchises make the playoffs. None of them are perfect, but with relatively settled squads plus some good reinforcements, they could be a force home and away.

After yesterday’s run through the Irish teams, today we’re looking at the questions facing South Africa’s big four.

Bulls

Can their match-winning play also be championship-winning?

The Bulls are very good at winning matches, with only Leinster winning matches in the URC era. They have a formidable combination of large men who can run fast, tactically astute play that pressurises the opposition, and a home ground at an altitude that often leaves visiting players struggling for oxygen. Playing the Bulls is not fun; it is going to hurt one way or another.

Yet, for all of this winning, they have no titles. Before last season a lot of people thought Leinster were the club who kept underachieving with their impressive resources, but at least you could say they were more interested in winning the Champions Cup. Now Leinster have won, the pressure is on the Bulls to turn their consistent winning into a tangible return.

When we look at the team data that matters, the Bulls are unsurprisingly good across the board.

This, of course, represents how the team performed across the season, and we already know they did well. What we really want to see if they did anything different in the finals or if the league winners have found ways to negate the Bulls. Let’s look at the last two finals and this season’s regular league match between the Bulls and Leinster which I will call Leinster B.

Interestingly, the two games in Pretoria were played differently to the game involving Leinster A. In South Africa, the visiting teams passed and carried much more than when Leinster played in Dublin. Possibly teams have worked out that the best way to play at altitude is to keep the ball rather than tackling constantly. Glasgow’s tackling was also excellent in their superb win, but noticeably they played a significantly proportion of the game (60%) in the Bulls’ half. The tactic appeared to be keep the ball, play in the right parts of the field and tackle everything that moves.

In this year’s final in Dublin, Leinster changed things by kicking much more often and relying on a strong set piece and set plays to surgically cut through the Bulls defence. This approach allowed them to win comfortably even though they won no turnovers (which tends to happen to Leinster when they lose Doris) and had a pretty average tackling display. This was a team confident in their plan and focused on delivering it at every stage.

So what about the Bulls? How did their approach differ?

When we look at the latest match, it is clear that the one-sided score was a fair reflection of the match. Leinster were simply better across the board. What is more interesting is that in all games the Bulls made fewer metres post contact and a lot fewer line breaks. When your game is based on bulldozing through contact, it’s a big problem when the other team does that to you instead.

The Bulls had the highest gainline success % in the league just ahead of Leinster, but they struggled more to beat defenders (10th) and make clean breaks (7th) and attempt offloads (8th). Because they are less successful at, or willing to try, these alternatives to running hard through someone, an opposition can build and execute a plan that works to negate any physical dominance.

The Bulls have chosen an approach that wins most of the time, and that is well rewarded in a league format. Use this approach and you will probably be in the playoffs every year with at least some home advantage. Bringing in Handrè Pollard is undoubtedly an upgrade at 10 as he will help them to deliver this winning formula at a higher level. But, will he help the team to show something different at the final hurdle when the opposition is completely committed to stopping Plan A? If they improve at scoring without running over someone then running with the Bulls could be lethal.

Sharks

Will someone stop the turnover madness?

On 22nd March last year, the Sharks achieved something no other team managed - they lost 25 turnovers in a single match against Zebre (according to RugbyPass). Against ZEBRE! At HOME! No wonder they only won 35-34.

And this was no flash in the pan - in the 20 games they played, they managed to lose 15 of more turnovers in 15 games or 75% of the time. According to the URC’s official statistics, they were by far the worst team followed by the Stormers who were also pretty bad compared to everyone else.¹

If you have ever wondered why the Sharks, a team full of world class Boks, are not more successful, then look no further. If you keep giving away opportunities for the opposition to relieve pressure or apply their own then you will struggle to dominate or win matches no matter who you are. Professional teams train week-in week-out to make the most of these chances and odds are you will suffer because of them.

Last season was still their strongest yet and the Sharks have not made large changes to their squad. Their arrow is definitely pointing up. Yet the other teams will have noticed how vulnerable the Sharks are to turnovers and will be better prepared to (a) force more turnovers, and (b) make the most of any that come their way. If the Sharks can be more accurate they can be league winners; if they can’t then an away fixture in the playoffs is the best they can hope for.

Stormers

Can SFM be the boss?

Last season Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was by far the best 10/out half in the league. If you follow the URC then you should already know this.

Part of this is because he plays for the Stormers (for example, Jurie Matthee was second for points per 80 minutes played), but nobody else was as much of a threat across the board.² He’s elusive, a skilled passer and most excitingly willing to try things most players wouldn’t dare for fear of failure/disappointing their coach.

This approach led a team that scored the third most points, made the second most offloads and the second most clean breaks. The Stormers’ backline has a lot of deadly attackers, but it is a lot more difficult to defend when the person orchestrating things may try anything at any moment. It’s no surprise SFM is starting matches for the Boks and I believe he’s nailed on to be the regular starter for the next world cup.

Where the Stormers struggled was control as they had one of the worst defences and their effectiveness in the opposition’s 22 was less than average. SFM can hardly be fully accountable for defence (though there is clearly room for improvement), but a more controlled game would reduce the number of opportunities for teams to attack off turnovers and penalties.

The Stormers kicked from hand the second least (only ahead of Connacht and equal with the Ospreys) but also lost the second most turnovers. Keeping the ball in hand increases the risk of turnovers and so there will be times where the better option is to kick. This may make the opposition turn and play from deep or allow teammates to challenge the catch winning the ball higher up. Either way you are pressurising them in a way that is less structured than a standard defensive line.

A more controlled approach will also have benefits when attacking. Considering the quality of the Stormers’ squad, it should be more lethal in the final 22. If they could improve their efficiency by 5%, matching Leinster’s, they would score an additional try every other game, or 45-63 more points over the course of a season. Leinster’s controlled approach may not be the most exciting, indeed it could be described as boring, but it did help them win the league without too many difficulties. Fans like style, but they love winning.

SFM will undoubtedly be one of the players of the season, injuries allowing. A great Autumn with the Boks in Europe will hopefully give him the acknowledgement his talent deserves. But he needs to add more control to that talent to fulfill his potential and take a talented Stormers squad back to the top.

Lions

Can the Lions finally break through by turning young players into stalwarts?

For some reason I always want the Lions to do well. It might be because they feel like the underdog especially next to their neighbours in Pretoria. It might be their players who seem committed to run and gun rugby, attacking from everywhere. Or it could be because they really should have made the playoffs by now.

In the four URC seasons the Lions have finished 12th, 9th, 9th and 11th. Last season they started with fours wins and then went 4-10 for the remainder for the season. Sure, two of those early wins were narrow wins away to the lowly Dragons and Zebre, but they then went on to push Leinster and Munster in Ireland, neither Irish team attaining the try bonus point.

A common reason for the Lions’ lack of success has been limited resources, and that is fair especially in comparison to the other SA teams. However, more frustrating is their lack of consistency. They finished last season with four homes games against Benetton, Connacht, the Scarlets and Ospreys. None of those teams are the league’s elite and between them they had won a combined 3 games in South Africa over the previous two seasons. The Lions were set up for a strong finish that could propel them into the playoffs for the first time.

• They lost to Benetton 42-31, the Lions only managing a more respectable scoreline after the Italians had three players yellow carded.

• They beat Connacht 26-7, but failed to secure the try bonus point.

• They lost to the Scarlets 32-19, the most points the Scarlets scored away from home all season.

• They beat the Ospreys 29-28, after scoring a 81st minute winner.

In the end they secured 9 points out of a possible 20 and missed the playoffs, 8 points behind the Scarlets. There is no guarantee that winning all four matches would have provided a playoff match (Cardiff would have had a lot to say about it), but they would have at least been part of the conversation.

Central to the inconsistency is not so much a lack of resource but experience. Take the all important 10 as an example. Prior to last season, Jordan Hendrikse was the primary fly half, and then he left to join his brother at the Sharks at the grand old age of 23. The fly half role was then largely shared between Gianni Lombard (26 and played 21 games in the URC) and Kade Wolhuter (23 with 3 URC games with the Stormers), but both struggled to lead the team. Wolhuter showed a bit more potential, but it is telling that the much more experience Chris Smith was signed for this season and Lubabalo Dobela has supported him during the Currie Cup. This is typical throughout the squad as less established players are more likely to get an opportunity here than at the other SA squads.

There are some good players in the squad, including the excellent scrum half pairing and a strong backrow including Ruan Venter and Francke Horn, and it’s great to see recent contract extensions or Horn, Bok Asenathi Ntlabakanye and the highly promising prop RF Schoeman.

Keeping most of the high performing players will be vital to building experience that the team can lean on when things are tough or the stakes are higher. As these players become club stalwarts they will create a successful environment that can accelerate the development of future players.

The schedule has also been kind with home games against the Scarlets, Ulster, Edinburgh, the Dragons, Glasgow and Connacht along with the other SA franchises. The European teams are patently beatable and the Lions could be looking at 7 wins at home. Recently 9 wins has been enough to reach the playoffs, so if the Lions can pick up a win or two in their first three matches at Cardiff, Zebre and Benetton they should be very well placed this May before playing Leinster and Munster away. If the team can build on last season then, finally, we should see the Lions challenge in the knock-out stages.

1. I used to wonder why the South African teams made fewer carries and tackles than average - turns out they play a lot less because of the number of turnovers!

2. For those Leinster fans, Sam Prendergast was a similar threat on points scoring and try involvements, but nowhere near the carrying threat.